Sunday, February 26, 2012

You are Your Record; Syracuse 71-UConn 69

I am not nor have I ever been a believer in "good losses". As Jim Boeheim said in a post-game interview " This team always finds a way to win." That is why the Orange are 29-1 and the Huskies are 7-9 in the Big East and precariously atop the bubble. I also do not subscribe to the oft repeated line (Dicky V. was very guilty of this yesterday) this UConn team is much better than their record; No! they have not beaten any of the top 6 teams in the Big East because the truth is this is a mediocre Husky team. I cannot remember a UConn team in recent years that allowed so many opposing players drive right down the lane to the hoop- that is just not UConn basketball. Yesterday was disgraceful as several Orange players drove to the hoop virtually unchallenged. In addition, they do not play consistently with hustle and their half court offense has regressed to virtually no movement off the ball. The loss of scholarships resulting from recruiting violations as left them with no depth on the bench.
Despite this, give them credit for an effort and hustle level yesterday that they have not shown in weeks. They overcame a 17 point deficit to tie the game and had the ball out of bounds down two with 13 seconds left to play. Grandma Moses could have figured out that the Huskies were going to try to put the ball in Jeremy Lamb's hands and when he got the ball Boeheim had him triple teamed so he had to make a desperation pass to Roscoe Smith whose off balance shot was blocked. I think they should have either had Lamb coming off double or triple screens to shoot a jumper or use him as a decoy and go inside. Giving him the ball up top and letting him try to make his own shot was a disastrous strategy.
Jeremy Lamb had a nice game and led the scoring with 19, followed by Drummond with 15boatright with 14 and Roscoe Smith in his best outing of the year with 13.
I do think that it is hard to evaluate how much Calhoun's absense has delayed this team's development- certainly it is a huge factor. Calhoun is scheduled to have back surgery on Monday and we wish him well.
UConn now has two games left - Providence and Pitt; if they win both they are 9-9 in the BigEast and are in the Big Dance. If they split and are 8-10 it would be awfully hard for the committee to justify an invitation to the Big Dance.
"You Heard it Here First"
Steve

Thursday, February 2, 2012

hOYa Vay! Georgetown 58- UConn 44

There are no words to describe how horrific the UConn Huskies looked as they registered their second lowest point total (42 in 1998 was their lowest) in their 58-44 loss to the Georgetown Hoyas last night. The Huskies shot 30% from the floor and after scoring 13 points in the first 31/2 minutes of the games they scored just 31 points in the last 261/2 minutes of the contest.

Prior to the game Calhoun announced that Oriakhi and Napier were being removed from the starting line up in favor of Boatright and Roscoe Smith in an attempt to speed up the tempo on offense. In the first 31/2 minutes Calhoun's strategy seemed prescient as the Huskies jumped out to the lead, looked good in transition, and Boatright made three beautiful feeds to Andre Drummond including an alley oop. Unfortuneately, Boatright picked up his second foul about 7 minutes in and as is Calhoun policy sat out the remainder of the half so as not to pick up his third personal. When Napier took over at point the transition game disappeared and the Huskies reverted to their stand around half court offense with the guards firing up bricks. Napier was 0-9 from the floor and finished with 1 point and Lamb was 4-18 and finished with 14. Once again, aside from Drummond, who had another impressive game, with 18 points on 9-12 shooting the remainder of the front court contributed only 9 points and stood around on offense.
When boatright went in to start the second half the Huskies had lost their spark and even the talented Freshman point guard could reignite them. I must say that in my 25 years as a UConnmen's basketball fan I have never felt sicker than I did after this display. Even the ever positive Dick Vitale expressed disgust at the Huskies lack of motion on offense.
So, what gives? In my mind there is a worst case scenario and a best case scenario. In either case, there are two conclusions that to me are incontrovertible. Roscoe Smith cannot and will never be able to shoot. Alex Oriakhi, although playing without any confidence right now, has no touch around the hoop. He has always missed too many chippies and it is accentuated this year because the rest of his game has fallen apart.
Worst Case Scenario - Simply put this teams potential was highly over rated and we were all fooled by their cupcake non-conference schedule. Smith and Oriakhi have little upside, Lamb cannot make the jump to go to guy and the Huskies will finish below .500 in the Big East and are bound for the NIT not the Big Dance.
Best Case Scenario- This young team is taking longer than expected to gel because of two disruptive influences. First, the 6 and 3 game suspensions of Ryan Boatright have delayed integrating him effectively into the line up and the other key players have been slow to adjust to his presence. Second, the addition of the highly talented Andre Drummond and Boatright have changed Oriakhi's role and reduced his minutes. He was expected to improve on last years 11ppg and 11rpg but instead has lost all his confidence and regressed. If he can regain some confidence he can at least become the effective rebounder that he was last year. Smith's role has also been reduced and he is lost but will also improve to provide the effective defense and defensive rebounding that he did last year.
Although Jeremy Lamb has been slow to become the "go to" guy he is only a Sophomore and remember Walker did not become dominant until his Junior year. Perhaps Lamb will grow into this role as the season progresses. Napier, confidence shook will regain his shooting touch and continue to add 12-13ppg. Now that Boatright is back, he will take over at the point and get the transition game going again. He is a great penetrator and passer and when he shakes the rust will score 10-12 ppg. Giffey will shoot more and score 8-10ppg.
Calhoun will realize that his best starting line up will be Lamb and Boatright at guard and Drummond, Giffey and ty Olander up front. To me, using Olander more is pivotal. He is a great interior passer and always looks inside when he gets the ball encouraging the other big men to get more active..When Olander is out the Huskies tend to stand around and watch the Guards dribble and shoot. If all these things happen the Huskies will finish a game or two above .500 and go the Big Dance. I don't see them advancing past the second round but who knows.
Which scenario will we see? that's why they play the games.
"You heard it here First"
Steve